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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|